Totally forgot about this blog

It’s been a whole year since my last post and there’s a massive backlog of questions that I won’t be able to go through. I’ll summarise a few popular ones here:

  • Thank you for the content.
    • You’re welcome! It’s a shame the series had to be put on halt due to what happened last year.
  • Blah blah [insert_profanity] something about game isn’t P2W.
    • Except it still is. I would have written an entire article explaining artisan memory when I first saw them put it in the cash shop on reddit. The TLDR is you’ll get 300-400 million average return every 1 billion gold dropped into enhancing. This does not apply to jewellery (obviously).
    • Unless you define win as having nothing to do with gear. If that’s the case then I don’t think there’s a single MMO on the market you would consider P2W.
  • Where did you go?
    • RL had been semi-busy so I dropped a lot of blogging / writing stuff.
    • I went back to TERA for a bit because of old friends and we’ve since moved to FFXIV on Aether and Overwatch.
    • I was meant to make a post here explaining where I went but I totally forgot.
  • What happened to the theorycrafting group?
    • TL;DR – It was disbanded shortly after I left last year. Most of the core members were disgusted by Kakao’s handling of the situation and had moved onto other things.
    • Are there any cool new theorycrafting resources now? Especially pertaining combat stats and gear enhancing strategy. If yes, PM me and I’d be interested in reading it anyway.
  • Will you ever come back to BDO and make more content?
    • The short answer: is no.
    • The long answer:
      • I actually do enjoy doing theorycrafting for games, especially the data-crunching part.
      • I don’t enjoy BDO forced mundane time investment and RNG/P2W based progression.
      • I was going to compile a massive theorycrafting resource for FFXIV: Stormblood, but to my surprise there are many good theorycrafters in that community, and they published a good chunk of it before I got knowledgeable enough on core mechanics.
      • While BDO is relatively interesting to theorycraft due to completely counterintuitive mechanics and very complicated maths, for me to grind an account to that point is simply not worth the potential theorycrafting fun. BDO progression is simply too cancer for anything else to matter.
      • In other words, there’s 0% chance I’ll come back unless someone donates/sells me a high end account.
      • In the latter case there will be no need for progression and I won’t mind dedicating my free time to exclusively theorycrafting / building a theorycraft community.

 

Also, how is this blog maintaining 15k views a month without updates? Sure that’s lower than the 150k a month last year, but that’s probably due to game declining popularity.

If I don’t forget again I’ll probably check back here once in a while, but if anyone wants to PM me even just for chit-chat, the Discord account I used when I played BDO (Bernkastel#5066) is still active and so is my reddit account (Garandou). Alternatively you can still comment on WordPress but I may or may not see it.

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A short update

It’s been a while since Kakao’s shady business practices went into full view. I’ve said my goodbyes to the community and I’ve had my fun watching the entire event go down. I do miss some parts of BDO, but sadly there’s no chance I’d be going back with the same publishers.

I thought I’d update this blog for the last (second to last?) time by filling in on what’s happened since and asking you guys for some opinions at the end. Don’t be shy lurkers, the site stats say you’re still here.

Kakao still receiving heavy criticism from the gaming community

BDO reddit appears to mostly speak in favor of Kakao now. Forums from what I’ve heard is still the same braindead spam, whiteknighting, misinformation and thread locks. That is to be expected since most people who care already left those places anyway.

Perception elsewhere though, Kakao’s reputation is irreparably poor as expected. Official BDO Youtube channel is still 50-90% downvote on every video. Reddit communities like /r/MMORPG unanimously agree Kakao is down there with the most awful publishers. MMO sites and forums speak strongly against BDO. Revelations Online forums list BDO as a failure case they wish won’t be repeated in the Western release of their game.

Hope you guys had luck with your refunds

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I copy pasted the generic message here initially in all my refund requests thinking it would be OK. Paypal ruled half for me and half against me, which I found a bit odd. Obviously I disputed the rulings with a personalized message including:

  1. Outlining the EU laws in regards to misleading advertisement
  2. Explaining Kakao’s marketing and breach of advertisement laws with proof, such as this video here (2min to 3min30sec)
  3. Outline the legality and consequences of these actions
  4. My good track record with Paypal spanning multiple years and hundreds of thousands of dollars in transactions, with no history of exploitation

And of course Paypal being reasonable people now knowing the full situation ruled the cases in my favor a couple of days later. I could have just sold my 450+ stat account for a couple of thousands like some of my other friends instead of spend 20-30minutes writing a few paragraphs explaining the situation in depth. But honestly, I like being on the legal side and I’m more interested in punishing shady companies than a small personal monetary gain. Between exposing their lack of transparency, disregard for customers and now hurting their own wallets, I’m more than satisfied with how these events turned out.

Hope the rest of you who also chose to refund managed to get your money back. If not, dispute the decision and give an honest and logical explanation. Paypal does in fact protect their customers from unlawful merchants.

What now?

I do miss the BDO eyecandy, and the flashy Dynasty Warrior combat that made grinding fun when done infrequently and sporadically. However, ultimately life without BDO isn’t that different at all. I wasn’t someone who had time to grind 24/7 so it wasn’t difficult finding other things to pass the time. Social events, reading books, a bit of exercise and a few friendly matches of LoL with friends fit quite comfortably in these slits.

Despite previously saying I probably won’t take on MMO gaming again, friends have been nonstop persuading me to try games they’re playing now that I don’t have a main game. The top suggestions so far are WoW: Legion and Overwatch.

What do you guys think about those games? Do you have other good personal suggestions? Or do you think there’s very little value in MMOs these days?

If I do decide to play another game or do something related, I’ll update with a post here. Otherwise this will be the last post on this blog. Being possibly the last post I have to end with something I have to say before I go:

Thank you all for being excellent and well-mannered readers which made reading and responding to comments quite the pleasant experience (most of you anyway).

The end of a short journey

Edit: Since this post published less than two days ago had now been viewed by 50k+ unique users including many sites not in direct relationship to BDO, I must clarify with a bit of context for those not familiar with me and the community. I am was a content creator for BDO specializing in mathematics and optimization, especially in gearing. My work is unique and no other known BDO player had been able to do what I do, as a result, this blog has thousands of unique clicks a day even when I don’t publish an article. When I do publish, that number can spike to over 10k. I had never been warned or banned on the forum previously for any bad conduct, and had always been considered among the most outspoken and logical members of the BDO community.


Yesterday in response to community outcry of Daum P2W policy, I wrote an extensive thread summarizing the thoughts and feelings the community had on Daum’s betrayal. The thread received universal support, with the popular post badge being awarded soon after posting. Many users expressed how well the thread summarized their feelings and thanked me for presenting their views in a clear, logical and concise manner. At the time of screenshot, excluding official posts, my thread was the most upvoted thread on the subject in the entire forums.

Because I already predicted what was likely going to be Daum’s response, I screenshotted the thread this morning. The full post can also be viewed on Pastebin here: http://pastebin.com/uPmTEpDi

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And not surprisingly, they acted exactly as I predicted they likely would. I was banned on the forum and the thread was removed.

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By doing this, Daum had clearly demonstrated they do not care about community feedback. In response to criticism, they chose censorship over transparent communication.

What did Jouska do after the community reacted to the announcement? Did he communicate and facilitate what’s going on? Did he listen to or at least acknowledge community feedback? No. He added an extra line to his announcement post to “clarify” why this is a good idea.

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Because we are the KR, JP and RU community am I right? Since the KR, JP and RU community loved it (citations needed), we should get it here. What do they take us players as? Mentally retarded? At least try harder if you’re going to lie. At this point, the low effort lies are straight up insulting.

In fact, look at this.

Before:

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After:

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Notice the difference? In response to negative feedback, feedback is no longer considered paramount to them. They also don’t seem to want to communicate on our behalf anymore.

For those interested, they also removed the line claiming PA was behind this change. It is now reasonable to assume Daum is at least partially behind this change. The link to the thread with evidence is here. If it disappears, you know what’s up.

Heck, why not remove the 5 items limit policy too?

Before:

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After:

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Daum and P2W supporters would love to tell you how well KR is doing. It’s not. KR is basically dead. KR BDO is ranked like 81th on the list of popular online games played by Koreans. Can you even list 15 MMOs? 81th is straight up pathetic. Unlike Daum, here’s the citation:

Weekly Korean MMO Rankings4.png

Edit: Some users consider 81st by GameNote too low and some sites also list BDO at around rank 20th. I don’t know which is more accurate, but regardless, the statistics are bad whether it’s 20th or 81st.

Even if they end up cancelling this decision, no reasonable person would ever trust them again. P2W only gets worse as a game gets older, so it’s inevitable they will pull something similar shortly down the track regardless.

In no way was my thread hate speech or irrational. My thread was not a bait and it was not inflammatory. I simply wrote down my view of the community’s feelings word for word. Daum silenced me, and thousands upon thousands of other users who share the same sentiment. Why acknowledge us? Just delete the thread and pretend it never existed.

I was going to just leave in silence when the patch hits. It would have been a feeling of disappointment mixed with regret. Now those emotions had been completely replaced with anger and discontentment. Daum’s disgusting behavior is unacceptable, and at this point in time, I had already requested my chargeback. Daum had undoubtedly broken all the promises for their product, this is a bait-and-switch. A few hundred dollars is nothing, but a company that acts like this deserves none of my money. This is not an issue of cost, this is an issue of principle.

BDO community consist of many ex-Archeage players who saw its rise and fall and was promised a new haven. It turned out, they simply misspelled hell. I urge the community to stand together and reject this tyranny. Let’s show them what trust is really worth.

Failstacking with armor

A popular strategy used by players enhancing endgame gear is deliberately downgrading armor to build stacks for more important components, such as weapons. Today we will examine the soundness of this strategy from a financial point of view.

We will only examine downgrading DUO and TRI fodder tier armor today. In other words, the mathematics will be done with Heve/Grunil equivalent armor at DUO/TRI.

The concept of what we’re doing here is best illustrated with a tree diagram. Tree diagrams allow us to examine possible outcomes based on the odds, and make inferences based on them.

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In mathematical terms:

  • The failstack cost analysis for armor enhance can be calculated as
    • ( CostArmorFail + CostEnhanceAttempt) * FailChance + (CostXFailstack + CostEnhanceAttempt – ExtraArmorValue) * SuccessChance
    • That equation calculates the expected outcome per action, but of course to reach your failstack goal you need to retry the outcome multiple times until you fail the enhancement.
    • The entire thing has to be divided by the probability of enhancement fail to give you the final equation:
      • ((CostArmorFail + CostEnhanceAttempt) * FailChance + (CostXFailstack + CostEnhanceAttempt – ExtraArmorValue) * SuccessChance) / FailChance
  • The failstack cost analysis for blackstone fodder can be calculated as
    • (CostXFailstacks + AverageStonesLost) * SuccessChance + AverageStonesLost * FailChance
    • That equation calculates the expected outcome per action, but of course to reach your failstack goal you need to retry the outcome multiple times until you fail the enhancement.
    • The entire thing has to be divided by the probability of enhancement fail to give you the final equation:
      • ((CostXFailstacks + AverageStonesLost) * SuccessChance + AverageStonesLost * FailChance) / FailChance

 

Next we need to figure out the multiple variables we need to complete the equations. We will examine this at 30 and 40 failstacks using DUO/TRI armor for the first strategy.

The cost of 30 failstacks and 40 failstacks can be worked out using combinatorics. This is too complex to summarize in this article, so I’ll just write the answers instead.

  • 30 Failstacks – 274.5 blackstones with Reblath+14
    • At 250k per stone and repair, this comes out to 68.6mil
  • 40 Failstacks – 1417.5 blackstones with Reblath+14
    • At 250k per stone and repair, this comes out to 354mil

The cost of DUO/TRI/TET Grunil as dictated by the market is:

  • PRI->DUO – 40m
  • DUO->TRI – 80m
  • TRI->TET – 120m

Using this and the KR enhancement table, it is now possible to work out all 8 scenarios and the cost of building additional failstacks using these.

DUO Grunil 30 stacks

((40 + 4) * 0.8 + (68.6 + 4 – 80) * 0.2) / 0.8 = 42.15m for 4 more stacks

TRI Grunil 30 stacks

((80 + 4) * 0.905 + (68.6 + 4 – 120) * 0.095) / 0.905 = 79m for 5 more stacks

DUO Grunil 40 stacks

((40 + 4) * 0.75 + (354 + 4 – 80) * 0.25) / 0.75 = 136.67m for 4 more stacks

TRI Grunil 40 stacks

((80 + 4) * 0.88 + (354 + 4 – 120) * 0.12) / 0.88 = 116.5m for 5 more stacks

 

And of course the cost using Reblath method.

  • Average stones used for 4 stacks = 1 + 0.85 + 0.85^2 + 0.85^3 = 3.19
  • Average stones used for 5 stacks = 1 + 0.85 + 0.85^2 + 0.85^3 + 0.85^4 = 3.71

How the above is derived can be found in an earlier article: https://bdomaths.wordpress.com/2016/07/15/demythifying-failstacks/

Reblath 30 stacks -> 34

((68.6 + 3.19 * 0.25) * (1-0.85^4) + 3.19 * 0.25 * 0.85^4) / 0.85^4 = 64.3m for 4 more stacks

Reblath 30 stacks -> 35

((68.6 + 3.71 * 0.25) * (1-0.85^5) + 3.71 * 0.25 * 0.85^5) / 0.85^5 = 88.1m for 5 more stacks

Reblath 40 stacks -> 44

((354+ 3.19 * 0.25) * (1-0.85^4) + 3.19 * 0.25 * 0.85^4) / 0.85^4 = 325.7m for 4 more stacks

Reblath 40 stacks -> 45

((354+ 3.71 * 0.25) * (1-0.85^5) + 3.71 * 0.25 * 0.85^5) / 0.85^5 = 445.9m for 5 more stacks

Conclusion:

The numbers are self-explanatory. The values used in the market prices of various Grunil pieces are before tax, so they slightly understate the cost of building stacks using the high enhance armor fail method.

Because of how simple these equations are, I’m not going to elaborate on these findings in more detail. Feel free to play around with them by substituting different armor costs and come up with your own conclusions.

Additional thoughts:

Given these numbers, it’s pretty obvious anyone with their hands on the enhancement equations can easily manipulate this mechanic with Value Pack. This is also a proof of concept on how to directly accumulate a Valk’s Cry effect on your enhancement through buying and selling gear with Value Pack. In order to prevent the market from being ruined more than it is already, I have no intention of releasing the specifics of this strategy at this point in time.

On RNG – Lies, Deceptions and Misinterpretations

Warning: This blog post is extremely heavy on the mathematical side and does not have much direct relevance to BDO gameplay. There were feedback that asked for more maths-orientated posts, so this is an experiment on how much demand there is on this type of content. Read this if you want to understand RNG. Do not read this if you don’t care about maths.

  • RNG is by far the most misunderstood popular concept in the history of everything.
  • RNG is frustrating, it makes people want to ragequit.
  • RNG is without skill, and your outcome rests solely on a dice roll.
  • RNG is psychologically rewarding through Operant conditioning, no matter how much you want to deny it.
  • RNG is part of almost everything in BDO.
  • But luckily, RNG does not actually change your fate in BDO.

I’ve wanted to write an article on RNG since I started this blog, however I never found a good way to discuss this topic in a relevant, succinct and straightforward manner. RNG is a complex issue that had been constantly misunderstood by people since the beginning of time. In fact, interpreting RNG is so hard that even scientists cannot easily explain the foundation statistical concept known as the p-value.

Today after seeing a reddit thread, I was inspired to make this blog post. Of course I was inspired because of how misleading that thread was, otherwise I’d just copy it here with credits. Nevertheless, it showed me the exact angle in which this topic should be best explained.

Look at these two pictures:

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  1. Which one was definitely generated by a RNG generator and which one was deterministic?
  2. If I gave you magical sand and asked you to spread it randomly and continuously gather and spread it again, which pattern would I more likely make?

Before we start, let’s assume both pictures have the exact same number of dots.

And here are the answers:

  1. We don’t know for sure.
  2. Both are equally likely.

The first answer should be easy to comprehend. An RNG mechanism of spreading dots on a sheet can produce literally any pattern. In fact, the dots can simply create a smiley face shape or all be confined to the top left quadrant of the canvas, albeit both extremely improbable.

The answer to the second question? The picture is just as likely to spread itself into a smiley face as it is to copy the left picture exactly.

Too deep down the rabbit hole? Don’t worry, this article ends with a very simple conclusion that everyone should take home.

This can be difficult to comprehend, so let us explain this by first cutting the canvas into discrete blocks. A canvas of X pixels height and Y pixels width can be:

  1. Cut into a canvas of X times Y number of boxes.
  2. Each box has a chance to contain either a dot or no dot.
  3. There are n dots in the canvas.

Therefore, the number of combinations the dots can take is finite. Because this concept applies to any number of dots, I’ll simplify it by demonstrating what I’m talking about in a 3 by 3 tic-tac-toe tiny canvas with n = 3 dots.

Mathematically, we know that 3 dots on a 3×3 canvas has a total of 9 Combination 3 solutions, thus 84 possible arrangements.

Here are examples of three arrangements.

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Which one is truly RNG? Which one is more likely to appear?

The answer is that all 3 can be generated by an RNG generator, and that all 3 have an equal probability to appear.

The probability to appear for each combination of black and white boxes can be calculated by the equation:

p(black total) * p(black total -1) * p(black total -2)

Which in mathematical form is:

3/9 * 2/8 * 1/7 = 1/84

Each combination has a 1/84 chance to be produced. There are 84 combinations.

To conclude partially, the above explanation shows that:

  1. Any pattern can be generated by a true RNG generator.
  2. It does NOT show that every pattern is generated by a true RNG generator.
  3. It does NOT show that there are no RNG generators that are inherently shit.

 

Now consider two sequences:

  1. 0101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101
  2. 1101000101011011100010101010110000011000001011110101000001000001

Which one is more likely to be generated by a true RNG generator? Still the same. But let’s ask a different question, which is more likely to be generated by a fake RNG generator?

The first sequence can be eyeballed and a pattern is already apparent. It is 01 repeated 32 times. The second sequence wasn’t generated with a pattern; I generated it with random.org.

Knowing the probability of both is not important if you want to know whether the pattern is surely random, but it is important if you want to know the odds of the RNG generator behind the sequence being a good RNG generator (i.e. closer to random).

We can now map the odds into a grid:

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This is not an advanced mathematics class so I won’t go into the several methods one can use to calculate the bottom right box, all you need to know is that it’s pretty much as low as the probability of it being truly random.

In other words, the odds of:

  • The first sequence is 18,400,000,000,000,000,000 to 1 in favor of fake RNG.
  • The second sequence is about 1 to 1 in favor of nothing.

We can therefore make a probabilistic claim that the first sequence is not actually RNG. We cannot make that claim for the second sequence.

Let’s go back to this picture:

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The same method can be applied to these pictures but because this is not an advanced maths class I will not do it step by step. The conclusion using a similar randomness approach to the above is that:

  • The left side image is probably generated by RNG.
  • The right side image is probably generated by a mixed RNG algorithm. It is rigged by a formula which decreases the probability of a dot being close to another preexisting dot.
    • MOBAs such as DotA and LoL use something similar to the image on the right side to reduce the snowball effect of RNG streaks.

The correct conclusions to draw from the reddit thread is:

  • The left side image in its exact form is more probable than the right side image to appear in a true RNG system.
    • [False]
  • The left side image is RNG, the right side isn’t.
    • [Impossible to determine with certainty]
  • The left side image is more likely than the right side image to be generated with a true RNG generator compared to a partial/fake one.
    • [True]

The most beautiful part of all of this? None of this is relevant to BDO at all. Suppose a square X unit tall and width represents 1 hour of grinding loot, now consider these two images:

ecdw5pmfz9bx3

If I place the same red box on the image randomly (simulating 1 hour of grinding), which side is more likely to give me a higher number of drops?

ecdw5pmfz9bx2

If I place the same red box on the image randomly (simulating 1 hour of grinding), which side is more likely to give me a higher number of drops?

The answer to both is it makes no difference as long as the algorithms do not use the red box as a variable. In other words, as long as BDO RNG isn’t controlled by a temperamental gnome that hates you, it honestly makes zero difference which formula it is in the long run. However, the smaller red box is likely to give larger fluctuations in the number of loot you get. This applies no matter whether you look at the left side or right side.

In fact, we can magnify both images to simulate events with low probability of occurrence, such as obtaining an Ogre Ring…. If you’re smart you’d realize that it has the same effect as making the red box smaller.

In other words:

  1. If an occurrence is more common, randomness becomes lesser of a factor.
  2. If the RNG dice is rolled more times, randomness becomes lesser of a factor.

To summarize, I will show you two graphs.

This is the cumulative probability graph of an event tested to be 10% success chance in game over 1000 tries using a real RNG generator.

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This is the cumulative probability graph of an event tested to be 10% success chance in game over 1000 tries using a broken RNG generator that has double the chance of rolling 9.

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So the final TL;DR:

  1. A true RNG generator has an equal likelihood of producing both images.
  2. RNG generators can be tested for randomness using many methods including statistics, transformations, string complexities, etc.
  3. The left image is more likely to be generated by a true RNG generator than a deterministic or partial RNG one.
  4. The right image is more likely to be generated by a partial RNG generator than a true RNG one.
  5. None of the above actually matters. In other words, the reddit thread posting that image was a red herring.
  6. What does matter is the frequency of RNG dice rolls and the frequency of success in each dice roll.
  7. Although I have to admit if BDO uses an algorithm like the one on the right, it will smooth the progression curve at least in the early stages.
  8. Point 7 shows why it can actually be beneficial to have rigged RNG systems, as long as you’re not the variable being rigged against. And you aren’t, so tinfoil hats off please.

The entire point of this long blog post? The effect of RNG gets lower the longer you play. Simple right?

 

Market Bonus vs Valk’s Cry

If there is one thing we are absolutely sure about in the current Value Pack mayhem is that PM_Jouska directly stated that Valk’s Cry would not be added to our version due to the advantage it gives players.

For those who are confused, Valk’s Cry is a cash shop item that can be used up to 10 times to grant 10 bonus failstacks. It is a P2W mechanic that is not currently available in NA/EU.

Here is a link to the thread: http://forum.blackdesertonline.com/index.php?/topic/100020-clarification-valks-cry/

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Because this is an official stance by Daum, we can safely conclude that it is objective in the context of BDO and without a doubt that anything providing more advantage than Valk’s Cry would also have no place in our build.

Valk’s Cry does not allow you to buy cash shop exclusive BiS gear. Valk’s Cry does not allow you to bypass RNG. Valk’s Cry does not allow you to catch up to a no-life player if you hardly play the game. What am I getting at? The simple fact that none of those are prerequisites to being P2W despite what some people might think. Daum themselves confirmed this.

In more simple terms if you still have trouble understanding, anything equal to or granting more enhancement advantage than Valk’s Cry is automatically classified as Pay To Win. It doesn’t matter what you think is P2W and what you think is not. Daum makes the calls on what’s P2W, not you. Simple logic dictates that the underlined statement is objectively true in context of BDO as it follows from a Daum official statement.

Now that we have an objective and irrefutable definition of P2W, we can proceed to doing the maths and determining how P2W 30% market bonus really is.

Here are the expected tries for +16->+20 gear and TRI->PEN jewelry using the methodology outlined in this post.

Untitled.jpg

Some basic inferences about how Valk’s Cry would be used:

  1. You would not use Valk’s Cry at say 0 stacks, because that’s a waste of money. You would probably not want to upgrade anything expensive with less than 25 stacks anyway. Valk’s Cry is reserved for at the bare minimum 25 stacks even if you’re very credit card happy.
  2. You are of course free to use Valk’s Cry for items you would enhance with less than 25 stacks, but that would give you negligible benefit. Go ahead and waste Valk’s Cry to enhance base Bares necklace if that’s your cup of tea.
  3. The effect of Valk’s Cry proportionally is highest at lower stacks. This is because of the diminishing returns on failstacks.

Below is a graph taking the expected tries at each failstack value and dividing by the expected tries with 10 bonus stack. Using that we can measure the proportional increase of Valk’s Cry. We will start the graph at 25 stacks because any equipment you should be enhancing at under 25 stacks cost too little to truly matter; you will not save much money wasting Valk’s Cry on them.

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As you can see, the effect of Valk’s Cry is less than 10% for realistic upgrades. This means Valk’s Cry will save you up to 10% of your resources if you P2W every single gear enhancement.

We will now examine market bonus. Value pack as of right now gives 30% bonus to market income, which means you will make 30% more profit from selling items in the market.

  1. We know that the silver you spend on gear is directly proportional to how good your gear is, with some fluctuation due to RNG.
  2. RNG does not change the fact that more silver means better gear, because having double the silver means you get double the tries on enhancement. This will improve your overall RNG and give you a higher likelihood of successful enhancements.
  3. There is no longer an excuse to claim silver is useless now that secret shop is in the game. The existence of secret shop directly means that you can progress to max gear with just pure silver and nothing else by sitting there rolling all day long.
  4. The “it’s all RNG” argument is irrational, because Valk’s Cry is also RNG yet it is objectively considered P2W. Therefore RNG does not exclude bonuses from being considered P2W.

Therefore we can use silver income as a model for gear enhancement. If the value pack 30% market bonus proves to be more than 10% total silver income then value packs are objectively more P2W than Valk’s Cry.

There are two main ways to make silver in BDO:

  1. Grinding.
  2. Crafting.

For a grinder, approximately 40% of your income is in sellable items, the other 60% is in junk items;the latter is unaffected by market tax. This means 30% market bonus is worth 12% increase in total income if you only grind.

[Edit] Reddit user BadsLiteYear brought up the fact that group grinding will bypass market, which is true. However it is also true that group grinding is very inefficient for money because loot is split 5 ways without increasing killing speed by 5 times. For reasonably geared players, you will make more money solo than group even accounting for the tax. How you choose to interpret this fact is up to you.

For a crafter, approximately 100% of your income is in sellable items. This means 30% market bonus is worth AT LEAST 30% increase in total income if you only craft.

To elaborate on crafting, your income is calculated by the equation:

NetIncome = MarketSale – MaterialCost

With value pack, your income is calculated by the equation:

NetIncome = MarketSale * 1.3 – MaterialCost

Crafting is not worth it unless your material cost is lower than the market sale. When material cost is zero, you will make 30% extra profit with value pack. When material cost is equal to market sale price after tax, you will make infinite % extra profit with value pack.

Most players are a combination of both, hence the value of 30% market bonus fluctuates between 12% to infinite % depending on your activity distribution. Even quoting the lowest number in that range, value packs surpass Valk’s Cry in giving an advantage.

 

We can now seal this debate with a single logical syllogism.

Premise 1: Valk’s Cry is considered objectively P2W by Daum because of the advantage to enhancement. Anything with higher advantage to enhancement must also be P2W.

Premise 2: Value pack 30% market bonus has a higher advantage to enhancement than Valk’s Cry due to disproportionately high increase in silver acquisition.

Conclusion: Value packs are objectively P2W and allowing its existence contradicts Daum’s own philosophy on the subject.

There are no valid objections to this reasoning because both premises are objective, and the conclusion logically follows from the two. Premise 1 is directly taken from Daum’s official stance, and Premise 2 is a mathematical truth.

You may now hold one of three viable opinions:

  1. P2W is not OK, so value packs are not OK.
  2. I want to P2W, so value packs are good.
  3. I don’t care about P2W, so I don’t care about value packs.

 

Even the official promotion artist subconsciously knew this.

20160720_en

Invest what? Hmm…

Success… you mean winning?

What a Freudian slip.

:^)

Cost vs Scaling – Mark of Shadows vs Crescent Guardians

A Bares necklace gives 6 AP 4 AP (credits to reddit user Caspersaur for noticing this error) and costs 100,000 silver (16.7k 25k per AP). An Ogre ring gives 10 AP and costs 100,000,000 silver (10million per AP). The nature of gear cost scaling in BDO is not proportional to the base stats of items. This is often a point of confusion, so in today’s short blog post, we will examine Mark of Shadows and Crescent Guardian’s Ring.

Crescent Guardian vs Mark of Shadows is the only gearing dilemma introduced in Valencia that I consider purely mathematical in nature. Blue Whale Earring gives the same AP as Witch Earring but also an additional 100 HP. How much is 100 HP worth? I don’t know. Basilisk belt gives 3 AP and Tree Spirit Belt gives 2 AP and 1 accuracy. Again, how much is 1 AP worth compared to 1 accuracy? I don’t know. The dilemmas in earring and belt choices are not mathematical in nature, hence I cannot analyze them objectively with simple numbers. If you want my opinion, Blue Whale Earrings are not worth it because of the exponentially higher cost for 100 HP at higher enhancements. Tree vs Basilisk is highly dependent on the rest of your build.

Using the strategies outlined in the previous blog posts, the cost of optimal enhancement for these two pieces of gear can easily be mapped out, so I will not go into details about the mathematics today. For more information about failstacking, read this post.

In short the cost of jewelry can be modeled by the equation:

(CostOfJewelry + CostOfBaseJewelry) * ExpectedTries + FailstackCost

The total consumption of rings can be modeled by the equation:

(PreviousEnhanceRingNumber + 1) * ExpectedTries

Here is a table of MoS and Crescent AP, cost, cost per AP and total rings required using the optimal tactic for enhancement. The failstacks are obtained with Reblath+14 and 200k blackstones. The failstacks at extremely high values are obtained with Reblath+19 and 4mil concentrated stones as after a certain stack breakpoint, this becomes cheaper to stack with than +14 Reblath.

Capture

And there you have it. The reason it costs more MoS than Crescent is because you would stack higher on Crescents, thus increasing success chance resulting in less raw rings burnt. Note that the cost of jewelry quoted in the table are the minimum based on perfect enhancement strategies, if you use a sub-optimal strategy, you will likely spend more.

In conclusion:

  1. Be realistic about your jewelry enhancement goals. Most people vastly underestimate how time consuming and costly it is at the higher enhancements.
  2. A DUO Crescent Ring is better than a TRI MoS in terms of cost effectiveness. They offer the same AP, but DUO Crescent is cheaper to make.
  3. The above means you should not invest in a MoS beyond DUO.
  4. Most jewelry enhancements follow similar patterns, thus can be approximately extrapolated using the tables above.
  5. As with all RNG based enhancements, this is subjected to fluctuations. If you go for TET/PEN enhancements, don’t expect that you’ll get it with certainty.
  6. Expect a jewelry enhancement guide for Base->TRI for a few common jewelry types in the near future.

 

As with likely all posts in the future, I won’t be responding directly to reddit threads unless I really like the question. To contact me, send me a PM or leave a message here.