Market Bonus vs Valk’s Cry

If there is one thing we are absolutely sure about in the current Value Pack mayhem is that PM_Jouska directly stated that Valk’s Cry would not be added to our version due to the advantage it gives players.

For those who are confused, Valk’s Cry is a cash shop item that can be used up to 10 times to grant 10 bonus failstacks. It is a P2W mechanic that is not currently available in NA/EU.

Here is a link to the thread: http://forum.blackdesertonline.com/index.php?/topic/100020-clarification-valks-cry/

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Because this is an official stance by Daum, we can safely conclude that it is objective in the context of BDO and without a doubt that anything providing more advantage than Valk’s Cry would also have no place in our build.

Valk’s Cry does not allow you to buy cash shop exclusive BiS gear. Valk’s Cry does not allow you to bypass RNG. Valk’s Cry does not allow you to catch up to a no-life player if you hardly play the game. What am I getting at? The simple fact that none of those are prerequisites to being P2W despite what some people might think. Daum themselves confirmed this.

In more simple terms if you still have trouble understanding, anything equal to or granting more enhancement advantage than Valk’s Cry is automatically classified as Pay To Win. It doesn’t matter what you think is P2W and what you think is not. Daum makes the calls on what’s P2W, not you. Simple logic dictates that the underlined statement is objectively true in context of BDO as it follows from a Daum official statement.

Now that we have an objective and irrefutable definition of P2W, we can proceed to doing the maths and determining how P2W 30% market bonus really is.

Here are the expected tries for +16->+20 gear and TRI->PEN jewelry using the methodology outlined in this post.

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Some basic inferences about how Valk’s Cry would be used:

  1. You would not use Valk’s Cry at say 0 stacks, because that’s a waste of money. You would probably not want to upgrade anything expensive with less than 25 stacks anyway. Valk’s Cry is reserved for at the bare minimum 25 stacks even if you’re very credit card happy.
  2. You are of course free to use Valk’s Cry for items you would enhance with less than 25 stacks, but that would give you negligible benefit. Go ahead and waste Valk’s Cry to enhance base Bares necklace if that’s your cup of tea.
  3. The effect of Valk’s Cry proportionally is highest at lower stacks. This is because of the diminishing returns on failstacks.

Below is a graph taking the expected tries at each failstack value and dividing by the expected tries with 10 bonus stack. Using that we can measure the proportional increase of Valk’s Cry. We will start the graph at 25 stacks because any equipment you should be enhancing at under 25 stacks cost too little to truly matter; you will not save much money wasting Valk’s Cry on them.

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As you can see, the effect of Valk’s Cry is less than 10% for realistic upgrades. This means Valk’s Cry will save you up to 10% of your resources if you P2W every single gear enhancement.

We will now examine market bonus. Value pack as of right now gives 30% bonus to market income, which means you will make 30% more profit from selling items in the market.

  1. We know that the silver you spend on gear is directly proportional to how good your gear is, with some fluctuation due to RNG.
  2. RNG does not change the fact that more silver means better gear, because having double the silver means you get double the tries on enhancement. This will improve your overall RNG and give you a higher likelihood of successful enhancements.
  3. There is no longer an excuse to claim silver is useless now that secret shop is in the game. The existence of secret shop directly means that you can progress to max gear with just pure silver and nothing else by sitting there rolling all day long.
  4. The “it’s all RNG” argument is irrational, because Valk’s Cry is also RNG yet it is objectively considered P2W. Therefore RNG does not exclude bonuses from being considered P2W.

Therefore we can use silver income as a model for gear enhancement. If the value pack 30% market bonus proves to be more than 10% total silver income then value packs are objectively more P2W than Valk’s Cry.

There are two main ways to make silver in BDO:

  1. Grinding.
  2. Crafting.

For a grinder, approximately 40% of your income is in sellable items, the other 60% is in junk items;the latter is unaffected by market tax. This means 30% market bonus is worth 12% increase in total income if you only grind.

[Edit] Reddit user BadsLiteYear brought up the fact that group grinding will bypass market, which is true. However it is also true that group grinding is very inefficient for money because loot is split 5 ways without increasing killing speed by 5 times. For reasonably geared players, you will make more money solo than group even accounting for the tax. How you choose to interpret this fact is up to you.

For a crafter, approximately 100% of your income is in sellable items. This means 30% market bonus is worth AT LEAST 30% increase in total income if you only craft.

To elaborate on crafting, your income is calculated by the equation:

NetIncome = MarketSale – MaterialCost

With value pack, your income is calculated by the equation:

NetIncome = MarketSale * 1.3 – MaterialCost

Crafting is not worth it unless your material cost is lower than the market sale. When material cost is zero, you will make 30% extra profit with value pack. When material cost is equal to market sale price after tax, you will make infinite % extra profit with value pack.

Most players are a combination of both, hence the value of 30% market bonus fluctuates between 12% to infinite % depending on your activity distribution. Even quoting the lowest number in that range, value packs surpass Valk’s Cry in giving an advantage.

 

We can now seal this debate with a single logical syllogism.

Premise 1: Valk’s Cry is considered objectively P2W by Daum because of the advantage to enhancement. Anything with higher advantage to enhancement must also be P2W.

Premise 2: Value pack 30% market bonus has a higher advantage to enhancement than Valk’s Cry due to disproportionately high increase in silver acquisition.

Conclusion: Value packs are objectively P2W and allowing its existence contradicts Daum’s own philosophy on the subject.

There are no valid objections to this reasoning because both premises are objective, and the conclusion logically follows from the two. Premise 1 is directly taken from Daum’s official stance, and Premise 2 is a mathematical truth.

You may now hold one of three viable opinions:

  1. P2W is not OK, so value packs are not OK.
  2. I want to P2W, so value packs are good.
  3. I don’t care about P2W, so I don’t care about value packs.

 

Even the official promotion artist subconsciously knew this.

20160720_en

Invest what? Hmm…

Success… you mean winning?

What a Freudian slip.

:^)

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20 thoughts on “Market Bonus vs Valk’s Cry”

    1. Sadly P2W games don’t last, and the people who get the short end of the stick are the developers.

      The publishers get away with filthy green pockets, and the devs get fired as the game population dwindles.

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      1. This is literally just a few sprinkles on the cake. I’ve played infinite games, this is nothing. I find ways to p2w in almost every game i can, and ive never been forced to play fair more so than i have been in bdo

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      2. I’m not arguing that BDO is super P2W, but honesty after promising zero P2W tolerance and the fact that they literally sold 1 million copies, you’d think the greed would be tamed for a bit right?

        Supporting developers is good. Put up new costumes and different types of pets. If you do a good job developing content, the players will speak with their wallets. Look at League, zero P2W, highest grossing game.

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      3. Honestly unsure of how a dull genre like LoL can keep up though, honestly. Some weird sorcery going on there, because they’ve never gotten a dime from me as their games are simply unfun.. forcing you to cooperate with 4 other toxic assholes ? no thank you.

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      4. In my opinion one of the major reasons for success of MOBA is the fact that there is no time investment. You can simply log on, and immediately play with your veteran friends.

        MMOs have a steep learning curve and a huge initial time investment, which makes it less appealing to most. Especially unappealing to people who aren’t really PC gamers.

        And the fact that many people still use toasters.

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      5. “In my opinion one of the major reasons for success of MOBA is the fact that there is no time investment. You can simply log on, and immediately play with your veteran friends.

        MMOs have a steep learning curve and a huge initial time investment, which makes it less appealing to most. Especially unappealing to people who aren’t really PC gamers.

        And the fact that many people still use toasters.”

        Umm… mate… MOBA’s have a MUCH higher skill-cap and learning curve than MMOs. The “initial time investment” of a MOBA is massive. You need to learn each and every character and their abilities – the synergies and counters – the current meta – the evolving meta. With an MMO your time investment is more long-term. Once you have that initial investment in a MOBA you only need to keep up to date with the patch notes and evolving meta. With an MMO you’re constantly grinding that slight upgrade.

        As for being able to “immediately play with your veteran friends” – well sure. But you’ll feed and lose. In a MOBA your ability to win comes down to your personal skill. In an MMO gear can make up for a lack of skill (unless you’re evenly geared). I suppose you could refer to the leveling process as an initial time investment but it’s by far less than a MOBA.

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  1. I think a big issue with your argument that you passed over is scalability. That is, a player with more (or unlimited) funds could buy their way to the top. The cost of the value pack is capped at $15/month and the in-game benefit is fixed. Valk’s cry, on the other hand, can be used an unlimited amount of times (not infinite failstacks of course, but its use can be repeated an endless amount of times.) More money = more benefit, poor players can’t compete, etc.

    Basically, value pack = limited P2W, Valks cry = unlmited P2W.

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    1. If they add a $5 item that gives 100 perma AP and can only be bought once, that’s limited P2W but it’s still P2W and extremely gamebreaking.

      Whether someone can be used once or unlimited times has no impact on whether it’s P2W or not. The article does not address impact (i.e. how P2W it is), it simply addresses whether it’s P2W.

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  2. Silver doesn’t help players to get gear. Silver helps Adam to get the gear of Bob. But someone have to farm the black stones/crystals, the base item to enchant, the repairing items/memories and perform the enchanting. If you are the only player on the server, the only way to use silver is Cron stones which is much less effective than Valk’s cry.

    Related issue: you can dodge tax by personally farming/crafting gear: if you craft Taritas armor to repair the max durability of your Taritas and gather to get hard black crystals, your gear level increases without paying a single silver of tax.

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    1. Buying a piece of gear is always cheaper than self enhancing with a few exceptions. Hence if Adam chooses to get his gear off Bob, he just proved he’s smarter. And silver is useful for smarter people.

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  3. I find problem with your arguments:
    1) the main argument is that you can’t buy 100* value pack and get more power while you could buy 100 valk cries and get more power with each buy. Value pack is basically subscription. (this is also the reason i like it because it will give steady income to the dev’s and make them less likely to spam p2w rng boxes and kill the game – see trion and Archage).

    2)Your main argument is that people that will use valk will always use them at 25 fs and then the diminish return will make it negligible. As you well know FS cost silver and the higher the FS the more silver it cost. Also to make tri accessories (or any low chance enchant) you need to make a lot of pri and due attempts, And there where valk cries= silver. For example if my goal is tri witch i will need to make a lot of witch pri first. This is where valk is strong and will save me a lot of silver.

    B.R
    Shivaro

    Like

    1. 1. This article does not address the extent of P2W, it just tells you whether the game had passed that line. Archeage passed its line and literally landed on the moon.

      2. I acknowledge this argument, however the premise goes back to point 1. The extent which an item can be potentially abused does not change whether it crossed the line or not.

      I can easily construct a scenario where a player managed to get 10,000% return on value pack market tax reduction using a specific crafting strategy. That is probably unrealistic. Using thousands or 10s of thousands of valk’s cry by burning $10,000 dollars is just as unrealistic.

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      1. Maybe you can make scenario where you manage to leverage a lot on the value pack, but the fact is second value pack wont scale that profit more then the first one.

        On the other hand buying base rare accessories off the market, using valks to pri (and maybe due) them and relisting them for profit can be realistic scenario, and will scale with every valk cry you would buy.

        Shivaro

        Like

      2. Buying 2 value packs instead of 1 does indeed scale my rewards, because I now have 2 months of +30% market tax rather than 1 month. After more than 30.000001 days a difference will emerge.

        Relisting jewelry is never profitable. You cannot make enhancing jewelry profitable in the long run even with no tax since valk cry is capped at 10 stacks. There are no jewelry in existence where enhancing works out to be cheaper on average than buying at max price.

        Just like value packs are limited by time, valk’s cry are limited by resources. I can theoretically spend unlimited money on value packs and have it pay off if the game lasts until the end of time. I can theoretically spend unlimited money on stuff to enhance if I actually have the material to do non-stop enhancing.

        Both scenarios are unrealistic, thus in a practical sense, both are capped.

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  4. Scaling power with time is the definition of mmo. My assumption is that you will be running the value pack 100% of your in game time just like the next guy, hence buying additional value pack wont scale. But i think you understand my argument 😛

    Indeed using valk to play the market with pri is not profitable in the long run, but as you know the devs control the prices in the market place for a reason. I suspect that if they feel altering this values will help their profit(by selling more valks cries) they might do just that.

    B.R
    Shivaro

    Like

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