The end of a short journey

Edit: Since this post published less than two days ago had now been viewed by 50k+ unique users including many sites not in direct relationship to BDO, I must clarify with a bit of context for those not familiar with me and the community. I am was a content creator for BDO specializing in mathematics and optimization, especially in gearing. My work is unique and no other known BDO player had been able to do what I do, as a result, this blog has thousands of unique clicks a day even when I don’t publish an article. When I do publish, that number can spike to over 10k. I had never been warned or banned on the forum previously for any bad conduct, and had always been considered among the most outspoken and logical members of the BDO community.


Yesterday in response to community outcry of Daum P2W policy, I wrote an extensive thread summarizing the thoughts and feelings the community had on Daum’s betrayal. The thread received universal support, with the popular post badge being awarded soon after posting. Many users expressed how well the thread summarized their feelings and thanked me for presenting their views in a clear, logical and concise manner. At the time of screenshot, excluding official posts, my thread was the most upvoted thread on the subject in the entire forums.

Because I already predicted what was likely going to be Daum’s response, I screenshotted the thread this morning. The full post can also be viewed on Pastebin here: http://pastebin.com/uPmTEpDi

1.JPG

And not surprisingly, they acted exactly as I predicted they likely would. I was banned on the forum and the thread was removed.

Capture.JPG

Capture

 

By doing this, Daum had clearly demonstrated they do not care about community feedback. In response to criticism, they chose censorship over transparent communication.

What did Jouska do after the community reacted to the announcement? Did he communicate and facilitate what’s going on? Did he listen to or at least acknowledge community feedback? No. He added an extra line to his announcement post to “clarify” why this is a good idea.

Capture.JPG

Because we are the KR, JP and RU community am I right? Since the KR, JP and RU community loved it (citations needed), we should get it here. What do they take us players as? Mentally retarded? At least try harder if you’re going to lie. At this point, the low effort lies are straight up insulting.

In fact, look at this.

Before:

123

After:

234.png

Notice the difference? In response to negative feedback, feedback is no longer considered paramount to them. They also don’t seem to want to communicate on our behalf anymore.

For those interested, they also removed the line claiming PA was behind this change. It is now reasonable to assume Daum is at least partially behind this change. The link to the thread with evidence is here. If it disappears, you know what’s up.

Heck, why not remove the 5 items limit policy too?

Before:

Capture.JPG

After:

Capture.JPG

Daum and P2W supporters would love to tell you how well KR is doing. It’s not. KR is basically dead. KR BDO is ranked like 81th on the list of popular online games played by Koreans. Can you even list 15 MMOs? 81th is straight up pathetic. Unlike Daum, here’s the citation:

Weekly Korean MMO Rankings4.png

Edit: Some users consider 81st by GameNote too low and some sites also list BDO at around rank 20th. I don’t know which is more accurate, but regardless, the statistics are bad whether it’s 20th or 81st.

Even if they end up cancelling this decision, no reasonable person would ever trust them again. P2W only gets worse as a game gets older, so it’s inevitable they will pull something similar shortly down the track regardless.

In no way was my thread hate speech or irrational. My thread was not a bait and it was not inflammatory. I simply wrote down my view of the community’s feelings word for word. Daum silenced me, and thousands upon thousands of other users who share the same sentiment. Why acknowledge us? Just delete the thread and pretend it never existed.

I was going to just leave in silence when the patch hits. It would have been a feeling of disappointment mixed with regret. Now those emotions had been completely replaced with anger and discontentment. Daum’s disgusting behavior is unacceptable, and at this point in time, I had already requested my chargeback. Daum had undoubtedly broken all the promises for their product, this is a bait-and-switch. A few hundred dollars is nothing, but a company that acts like this deserves none of my money. This is not an issue of cost, this is an issue of principle.

BDO community consist of many ex-Archeage players who saw its rise and fall and was promised a new haven. It turned out, they simply misspelled hell. I urge the community to stand together and reject this tyranny. Let’s show them what trust is really worth.

Market Bonus vs Valk’s Cry

If there is one thing we are absolutely sure about in the current Value Pack mayhem is that PM_Jouska directly stated that Valk’s Cry would not be added to our version due to the advantage it gives players.

For those who are confused, Valk’s Cry is a cash shop item that can be used up to 10 times to grant 10 bonus failstacks. It is a P2W mechanic that is not currently available in NA/EU.

Here is a link to the thread: http://forum.blackdesertonline.com/index.php?/topic/100020-clarification-valks-cry/

Capture

Because this is an official stance by Daum, we can safely conclude that it is objective in the context of BDO and without a doubt that anything providing more advantage than Valk’s Cry would also have no place in our build.

Valk’s Cry does not allow you to buy cash shop exclusive BiS gear. Valk’s Cry does not allow you to bypass RNG. Valk’s Cry does not allow you to catch up to a no-life player if you hardly play the game. What am I getting at? The simple fact that none of those are prerequisites to being P2W despite what some people might think. Daum themselves confirmed this.

In more simple terms if you still have trouble understanding, anything equal to or granting more enhancement advantage than Valk’s Cry is automatically classified as Pay To Win. It doesn’t matter what you think is P2W and what you think is not. Daum makes the calls on what’s P2W, not you. Simple logic dictates that the underlined statement is objectively true in context of BDO as it follows from a Daum official statement.

Now that we have an objective and irrefutable definition of P2W, we can proceed to doing the maths and determining how P2W 30% market bonus really is.

Here are the expected tries for +16->+20 gear and TRI->PEN jewelry using the methodology outlined in this post.

Untitled.jpg

Some basic inferences about how Valk’s Cry would be used:

  1. You would not use Valk’s Cry at say 0 stacks, because that’s a waste of money. You would probably not want to upgrade anything expensive with less than 25 stacks anyway. Valk’s Cry is reserved for at the bare minimum 25 stacks even if you’re very credit card happy.
  2. You are of course free to use Valk’s Cry for items you would enhance with less than 25 stacks, but that would give you negligible benefit. Go ahead and waste Valk’s Cry to enhance base Bares necklace if that’s your cup of tea.
  3. The effect of Valk’s Cry proportionally is highest at lower stacks. This is because of the diminishing returns on failstacks.

Below is a graph taking the expected tries at each failstack value and dividing by the expected tries with 10 bonus stack. Using that we can measure the proportional increase of Valk’s Cry. We will start the graph at 25 stacks because any equipment you should be enhancing at under 25 stacks cost too little to truly matter; you will not save much money wasting Valk’s Cry on them.

Capture

As you can see, the effect of Valk’s Cry is less than 10% for realistic upgrades. This means Valk’s Cry will save you up to 10% of your resources if you P2W every single gear enhancement.

We will now examine market bonus. Value pack as of right now gives 30% bonus to market income, which means you will make 30% more profit from selling items in the market.

  1. We know that the silver you spend on gear is directly proportional to how good your gear is, with some fluctuation due to RNG.
  2. RNG does not change the fact that more silver means better gear, because having double the silver means you get double the tries on enhancement. This will improve your overall RNG and give you a higher likelihood of successful enhancements.
  3. There is no longer an excuse to claim silver is useless now that secret shop is in the game. The existence of secret shop directly means that you can progress to max gear with just pure silver and nothing else by sitting there rolling all day long.
  4. The “it’s all RNG” argument is irrational, because Valk’s Cry is also RNG yet it is objectively considered P2W. Therefore RNG does not exclude bonuses from being considered P2W.

Therefore we can use silver income as a model for gear enhancement. If the value pack 30% market bonus proves to be more than 10% total silver income then value packs are objectively more P2W than Valk’s Cry.

There are two main ways to make silver in BDO:

  1. Grinding.
  2. Crafting.

For a grinder, approximately 40% of your income is in sellable items, the other 60% is in junk items;the latter is unaffected by market tax. This means 30% market bonus is worth 12% increase in total income if you only grind.

[Edit] Reddit user BadsLiteYear brought up the fact that group grinding will bypass market, which is true. However it is also true that group grinding is very inefficient for money because loot is split 5 ways without increasing killing speed by 5 times. For reasonably geared players, you will make more money solo than group even accounting for the tax. How you choose to interpret this fact is up to you.

For a crafter, approximately 100% of your income is in sellable items. This means 30% market bonus is worth AT LEAST 30% increase in total income if you only craft.

To elaborate on crafting, your income is calculated by the equation:

NetIncome = MarketSale – MaterialCost

With value pack, your income is calculated by the equation:

NetIncome = MarketSale * 1.3 – MaterialCost

Crafting is not worth it unless your material cost is lower than the market sale. When material cost is zero, you will make 30% extra profit with value pack. When material cost is equal to market sale price after tax, you will make infinite % extra profit with value pack.

Most players are a combination of both, hence the value of 30% market bonus fluctuates between 12% to infinite % depending on your activity distribution. Even quoting the lowest number in that range, value packs surpass Valk’s Cry in giving an advantage.

 

We can now seal this debate with a single logical syllogism.

Premise 1: Valk’s Cry is considered objectively P2W by Daum because of the advantage to enhancement. Anything with higher advantage to enhancement must also be P2W.

Premise 2: Value pack 30% market bonus has a higher advantage to enhancement than Valk’s Cry due to disproportionately high increase in silver acquisition.

Conclusion: Value packs are objectively P2W and allowing its existence contradicts Daum’s own philosophy on the subject.

There are no valid objections to this reasoning because both premises are objective, and the conclusion logically follows from the two. Premise 1 is directly taken from Daum’s official stance, and Premise 2 is a mathematical truth.

You may now hold one of three viable opinions:

  1. P2W is not OK, so value packs are not OK.
  2. I want to P2W, so value packs are good.
  3. I don’t care about P2W, so I don’t care about value packs.

 

Even the official promotion artist subconsciously knew this.

20160720_en

Invest what? Hmm…

Success… you mean winning?

What a Freudian slip.

:^)