Recruiting testers and theorycrafters

WordPress is an intuitive platform for managing multiple authors. To make this a success, I’m looking for BDO players who are interested in the theorycrafting approach to gaming. You do not need to be a maths God to collaborate, you just need to have an understanding of the philosophy behind this methodology and a passion for theorycrafting.

I’m looking for people who are:

  1. Testers who enjoy testing game mechanics and translating it into unique data.
  2. Analysts who enjoy analyzing data or coming up with new gameplay strategies.
  3. Programmers who can help make some apps and web calculators for various BDO mechanics. Programmers are also key for doing Monte-Carlo simulations.
  4. Web designers and artists because I’m awful at art.

Please contact me on reddit Garandou if you’re interested in collaboration with your skillset and what’s the first thing you want to do here.

Your New Liverto – A Daunting Experience

When a new player starts the game, I always tell them to skip Yuria and go straight to Liverto. The reason for this is simple, Liverto gives 15% more accuracy than Yuria, making it comparable to +15 Yuria when it’s only +12 or so. The cost of getting Liverto +11~+13 is lower than the cost of getting +15 Ultimate Yuria, yet functions identically and have longevity.

To me, investing in a Yuria is immediately setting yourself back 25million silver, because you quickly replace it with a Liverto, which is now easily accessible. A new player could simply cash in their free leveling gold bars for a shiny Liverto, and never have to worry about changing their weapon months or even years down the track.

[Edit] If you’re level 45 and you need a weapon ASAP, you can borrow a Kaia weapon from Kanobas in Calpheon for 50 contribution points. This weapon can be used while you get your Liverto to an acceptable enhancement level. Credits to jimcdiver on BDO Discord for bringing this to my attention.

If this is your experience, you’re in luck. This blog post will teach you how to get to +15 Liverto in the cheapest way possible. Note: as with all RNG, this is subject to fluctuation. The strategy here maximizes your odds, but does not guarantee them.

In order to work out the optimal strategy, you need to know:

  1. The amount of tries on average. I covered that topic here previously.
  2. The cost of each enhance attempt, blackstone + memory fragments. Straightforward.
  3. The cost of building X number of failstacks. I will cover this topic eventually.

For every value of failstack, the price of the enhancement can be calculated by:

(BlackstoneCost)*(1/p(success))+(MemFragCost)*odds(failure)+FailstacksCost

To save everyone the trouble of doing thousands of rows on Excel, I did this for you already.

Capture

 

Focus only on the blue cells. Some of the rest do not apply to enhancements before +16. The costs used in this spreadsheet:

  1. Memory Fragment: 800k each.
  2. Blackstone (Weapon): 300k each.
  3. Blackstone (Armor): 200k each.

How to build failstacks:

  1. Make a level 10 alt. Kill 1-2 horses so your karma is negative.
  2. Enhance Reblath pieces until desired failstacks reached. Reblath can be purchased from the Velia Blacksmith.
  3. If your Reblath hits +15 at any point, equip it on your negative karma alt and suicide in PvE a few times until it delevels back to +14.
  4. Continue to build stacks on your +14 Reblath until desired stacks reached.

[Edit] If you still have armor pieces not +15 yet, you should build failstacks on those instead of buying a Reblath. Thanks to reddit user asdf2100asd for bringing this to my attention.

And here is the optimal strategy.

  1. Buy Liverto+15 premade if it’s on the market and you can afford it. If not, follow step 2 to 10.
  2. Enhance your Liverto to +7. This has a 100% success chance.
  3. Force enhance your Liverto to +8.
  4. Build 7 failstacks and attempt to upgrade your Liverto to +9. This will cost you 6.3mil on average.
  5. Build 8 failstacks and attempt to upgrade your Liverto to +10. This will cost you 7.7mil on average.
  6. Build 9 failstacks and attempt to upgrade your Liverto to +11. This will cost you 9mil on average.
  7. Build 9 failstacks and attempt to upgrade your Liverto to +12. This will cost you 12.3mil on average.
  8. Build 10 failstacks and attempt to upgrade your Liverto to +13. This will cost you 14.8mil on average.
  9. Build 12 failstacks and attempt to upgrade your Liverto to +14. This will cost you 18.7mil on average.
  10. Build 13 failstacks and attempt to upgrade your Liverto to +15. This will cost you 21.8mil on average.

I listed the prices above so you can have realistic expectations about how far you go. You could be luckier, you could be cursed. To those who are slightly more maths savvy, the numbers quoted are means. Because the distribution of enhancement is right skewed, more than half the players who attempt this will be able to do it with cheaper than the stated prices (median).

That’s all for today. Remember:

  1. Yuria is meme. Never use that junk.
  2. Enhancement is all about maths. Delete “it’s all RNG” from your vocabulary. Your IQ will go up 20 points instantaneously, trust me.

[Edit] Response to some queries. 

Demythifying Failstacks

Failstacks is a hot subject for discussion with the release of +16 to +20 enhancements. Many consider it essential to build as many failstacks as possible and that doing so would guarantee (or significantly improve the odds) of successful enhancement.

Before we continue with the discussion about failstacks, all of the numbers in this post assumes the KR enhancement table is correct, i.e.

Capture

For example, reading the 16 row we can see that an enhancement from +15 to +16 would go from 15% success chance up to 52.5% at 25 failstacks. This may seem like a significant boost of over three times, but how much does that translate into real value?

We know that on average it will take you (1/0.525) = 1.9 tries to enhance a piece of +15 gear to +16 starting from 25 failstacks. However, if you subsequently assume that it takes you (1/0.15) = 6.67 tries to enhance a piece of gear starting at zero failstacks, you would be wrong. The reason is because with each fail, you will build failstacks, and for weapon and armor, +15 to +16 builds 2 failstacks.

The expected number of tries can easily be mapped out with an equation, but instead of confusing everyone I will instead rely on an analogy to explain.

Say 1000 people are flipping a coin, and once you flip heads (success) you don’t have to flip anymore. When every single person is finished flipping, how many flips did each person do on average?

After the first flip, 500 people would have flipped heads on a fair coin. On the second flip, half of the remainder will have flipped a heads. On the third flip, half of the remainder would have flipped heads. On a practical level, we know each of the 1000 will finish flipping, but on a mathematical level, we know that there is a small chance that someone might spend the rest of their lives flipping coins.

The answer to the above question is very simple, 1000 people will flip once, 500 will flip a second time, 250 flip a third….. infinite. Therefore the answer is simply 1000+500+250+125+62.5…… divided by 1000 people. On average, each person will flip the coin twice.

Some of you might have figured out that this question could have been more easily solved by simply dividing 1 by 50% chance of heads, which is true, however that only works if the probability of tossing a heads does not change. It doesn’t change for a fair coin, but BDO enhancing is not a fair coin. Each time you fail, the probability of success goes up because of failstacks.

This method however can be applied when calculating failstacks. We simply need to add the probability of succeeding, the probability of fail->success, the probability of fail->fail->success….. infinite and we will get the expected number of tries on an enhancement.

To save everyone the headache of filtering through a huge list of equations and numbers, I did that for you all on Excel. Yes, I did account for fails giving 4 stacks instead of 1 stack. Here is the average amount of attempts required to successfully enhance a piece of gear from +17 to +18:

17 to 18 stack

Note the above does not take into account the number of tries leveling a +16 piece of gear back to +17 thanks to deleveling. It strictly only measures the amount of times you will put a +17 piece of gear and a concentrated blackstone into the menu and have the Black Spirit laugh at you.

As you can see, if you start from zero failstacks, it will take you 7.4 tries to succeed on average. Doing it at capped 44 stacks drops this to 3.7 tries but 44 failstacks is semi-impossible to build on purpose. Doing it on a modest stack like 25 drops the attempts to 4.5 tries.

It’s always kind of funny watching people on the forums complain about failing +18 three times. The average player is expected to fail 3.7 times even if they start at max stacks.

The above really goes and illustrates a few very important concepts:

  1. Failstacks does not guarantee success. You need to try many times regardless of how many failstacks you build.
  2. Valk Blessing that many people are begging to have implemented into our version actually does almost nothing. Going from 34 stacks to 44 stacks drops the amount of tries on average by 0.3 tries. This is negligible.
  3. It is not always the optimal strategy to build maximum failstacks. Building 40 failstacks costs an astronomical value compared to say 20 failstacks, but only drops your expected tries by a bit over 1 try.

Optimal stacking breakpoints is another monster in itself and maybe we’ll talk about that another day. Hopefully this post is able to provide some insight into BDO failstack system and dispel the myth that there is a huge effect on success at modest values.

If you have any suggestions about this post or on topics to cover, feel free to contact me or leave a message below.